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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.06.2015 to 03.07.2015 Expected to trade with a negative bias

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 Stock-specific movement is seen dominating domestic equities next week, and the market will track Greece's negotiations with its European lenders and monthly automobile sales figures. While some market participants expect a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) owing to the better-thanexpected advance of the monsoon, others are sceptical. It would be premature to expect a rate cut from the RBI as we are yet to witness the distribution of the monsoon in July and August. In June, we receive only 15% of the total monsoon. There are also heightened prospects of the El Nino wreaking havoc on monsoon by the end of July.

Though the Indian rupee may face a risk of depreciation if Greece defaults on its payment of
International Monetary Fund, the RBI is well-equipped to keep the currency stable. Greece will be meeting its creditors on Saturday to unlock bailout funds for repaying 1.5 bln Euros to IMF by Jun 30. The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen trading between the range of 8300 and 8600 points next week. The 50-share benchmark index ended at 8381.10 points, down 16.90 points or 0.2% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27811.84 points, down 84.13 points or 0.3% from Thursday's close.

The index ended down largely weighed by stocks of banks. The outlook on banks has turned
negative after the RBI, in its Financial Stability Report, stated that while the overall risks to the banking system moderated marginally, banks' asset quality had not witnessed any improvement. The Bank Nifty, which ended down 0.7% at 18371.50 points, is seen trading in the range of 18000 to 18700 points in the next week.

Though the central bank has talked about likely increase in stressed assets, the addition is not higher than what was seen earlier. Moreover, improved corporate profitability is seen slowing the pace of deterioration of assets, the government is also well-capitalised to handle stressed accounts, but my sense is that it would wait till the system strengthens before doling out capital to the corrupt public sector banks. Transfer of top-executives and board of directors of state-owned banks will help reduce stressed assets. Market participants will also track monthly sales figures of automobile manufacturing companies. The sales are seen subdued owing to lackadaisical demand in rural areas. )